THE BED OF PROCRUSTES (Philosophical Aphorisms) (2010, 2016)ĪNTIFRAGILE (2012), on how some things like disorder (hence volatility, time, chaos, variability, and stressors) while others don’t, how we can classify things along the lines fragile-robust-antifragile, how we can identify (anti)fragility based on nonlinear response without having to know much about the history of the process (which solves most of the Black Swan problem), and why you are alive if and only if you love (some) volatility.įor instance, bank blowups came in 2008 because of the accumulation of hidden and asymmetric risks in the system: bankers, master risk transferors, could make steady money from a certain class of concealed explosive risks, use academic risk models that don’t work except on paper (because academics know practically nothing about risk), then invoke uncertainty after a blowup (that same unseen and unforecastable Black Swan and that same very, very stubborn author), and keep past income-what I have called the Bob Rubin trade. THE BLACK SWAN (2007, 2010), on how high-impact but rare events dominate history, how we retrospectively give ourselves the illusion of understanding them thanks to narratives, how they are impossible to estimate scientifically, how this makes some areas-but not others-totally unpredictable and unforecastable, how confirmatory methods of knowledge don’t work, and how thanks to Black Swan–blind “faux experts” we are prone to building systems increasingly fragile to extreme events. “On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions.”įOOLED BY RANDOMNESS (2001, 2004), on how we tend to mistake luck for skills, how randomness does not look random, why there is no point talking about performance when it is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg, and the profound difference between dentists and speculators. “On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena,” arXiv preprint arXiv:1510.06731. “ Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics.” The American Statistician 61(3): 198–200. “Principal and Agent.” In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, vol. “Leadership Ethics and Asymmetry.” In Leadership and Ethics, ed. Sandis, Constantine, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2015. Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily LifeĬapital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Taleb and Douady (2012) applies it to all forms of local nonlinearities.Įmpirical record of bigger: Mergers and hubris hypothesis: in Roll (1986) since then Cartwright and Schoenberg (2006). While Jensen deals with monotone functions, Van Zwet deals with concave-convex and other mixtures-but these remain simple nonlinearities. Numbers redone recently in The Economist, “Counting the Cost of Calamities,” Jan. The age of increasing fragility: Zajdenwebber, see the discussion in The Black Swan. It looks like what we interpret as political systems might come from size. 2011.Īnecdotal knowledge and power of evidence: A reader, Karl Schluze, wrote: “An old teacher and colleague told me (between his sips of bourbon) ‘If you cut off the head of a dog and it barks, you don’t have to repeat the experiment.’ ” Easy to get examples: no lawyer would invoke an “N=1” argument in defense of a person, saying “he only killed once” nobody considers a plane crash as “anecdotal.” Nuclear, new risk management: Private communication, Atlanta, INPO, Nov. Few other philosophers go back to the real problem of probability.įourth Quadrant: See the discussion in The Black Swan or paper Taleb (1999). N., 2009, “Errors, Robustness, and the Fourth Quadrant.”Īnd the notion that science equals measurement free of error-it is, largely but not in everything-can lead us to all manner of fictions, delusions, and dreams.Īn excellent understanding of probability linked to skepticism: Franklin (2001). N., 2008, “Infinite Variance and the Problems of Practice.” Complexity 14(2). Spitznagel, 2009, “The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management,” Harvard Business Review (October). Tapiero, 2010, “The Risk Externalities of Too Big to Fail.” Physica A: Statistical Physics and Applications. Pilpel, 2007, “Epistemology and Risk Management.” Risk and Regulation 13, Summer. Blyth, 2011, “The Black Swan of Cairo.” Foreign Affairs 90(3). Quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder
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